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Latest FX Pulse Videos

Check it out and see our views on how FX trends move.

 

26 January 2026

Markets alert to joint US-Japan intervention on JPY

5 January 2026

USD upside likely limited

 

Latest FX News

FX Weekly – 12 Jan 2026

Dives to a Nearly One-Year Low! Don’t Miss This!

100 JPY/HKD dropped to 4.92 level. Media reports indicate Prime Minister Takaichi may dissolve the lower house later this month. This uncertainty has pushed the JPY to nearly a one-year low. Any official announcement of a snap election could trigger further JPY weakness, despite potential government intervention to limit currency depreciation. 100 JPY/HKD may see support around 4.87-4.93 (USD/JPY 158-160). Snow season isn’t over and the Chinese New Year holiday is also approaching. Seize the opportunity to lock in your ideal exchange rate!

FX Weekly – 23 Dec 2025

100 JPY/HKD is still lower the 5 mark

100 JPY/HKD is still lower the 5 mark. However, the pair has overshot yield differentials, which we believe will eventually trigger BOJ intervention. We expect the pair to rebound to about 5.3 in 2026 on increasingly divergent central bank policies between the Fed (potential rate cut) and the BoJ (potential rate hike).

FX at a glance

Key FX Highlights

  • We expect the USD to rebound modestly to 100 over the next one to three months. The USD appears to be bottoming out in the near term, with bearish positioning starting to normalise and scope emerging for a short squeeze.
  • However, the USD Index (DXY) is likely to face firm resistance around the 100 level, given technical and fundamental conditions remain insufficient to drive a sustained return to the pre-2025 range of 100-110.
  • Therefore, we would view any near-term USD rebound as an opportunity to add to weak-USD trades.
  • Beyond a short-term rebound, we expect the USD to weaken over the next 6-12 months to 96.

For more details, you may download our latest Global Market Outlook.

USD

3m forecast: 100

12m forecast: 96

The bullish case:

+ Bearish positionings start to normalise

+ Safe-haven demand

The bearish case:

– The Fed’s further rate cut

– Weak US labour market

–Rising policy uncertainty

GBP

3m forecast: 1.31 (GBP/USD)

12m forecast: 1.35 (GBP/USD)

The bullish case:

+ USD weakness

The bearish case:

– A surge in BoE rate cut expectations
– Slower-than-expected UK inflation

JPY

3m forecast: 149 (USD/JPY)

12m forecast: 142 (USD/JPY)

The bullish case:

+ BoJ’s expected rate hike

+ Expected Fed rate cuts

The bearish case:

– Delay in BoJ restrictive monetary policy
– Market concerns over fiscal challenges

AUD

3m forecast: 0.66 (AUD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.63 (AUD/USD)

The bullish case:

+ RBA holds rates higher for longer relative to US
+ Easing trade tensions between China and the US

The bearish case:

– China’s modest recovery

EUR

3m forecast: 1.15 (EUR/USD)

12m forecast: 1.20 (EUR/USD)

The bullish case:

+ Unlikely to cut rate significantly further

+ USD weakness

The bearish case:

– Political uncertainty

NZD

3m forecast: 0.57 (NZD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.55 (NZD/USD)

The bullish case:

+ USD weakness

The bearish case:

– RBNZ rate cut pressure

– New Zealand’s rising unemployment

CAD

3m forecast: 1.42 (USD/CAD)

12m forecast: 1.42 (USD/CAD)

The bullish case:

+ USD weakness

The bearish case:

– BoC cuts rates

– Trade uncertainties

CHF

3m forecast: 0.81 (USD/CHF)

12m forecast: 0.84 (USD/CHF)

The bullish case:

+ Sale of FX reserves

+ Intervention risk

The bearish case:

– Easing safe-haven demand

CNY

3m forecast: 7.16 (USD/CNY)

12m forecast: 7.20 (USD/CNY)

The bullish case:

+ China fiscal stimulus

+ Easing trade tensions

The bearish case:

– Geopolitics

– Unfavorable rate differentials

– Modest economic recovery

Photography, Adult, Female

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Disclaimers

Important Note of Investment Products

Premium deposit, Equity Linked Investments and structured notes are structured products involving derivatives. Investment Fund is an investment product and some Investment Funds would involve derivatives. The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in that investment product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation, investment experience and investment objectives.

Risk Disclosure Statement

  • Investment involves risks. The prices of investment products fluctuate, sometimes dramatically and the worst case may result in loss of your entire investment amount. Past performance is no guide to its future performance.
  • Investors should read the terms and conditions contained in the relevant offering documents and in particular the investment policies and the risk factors and latest financial results information carefully and are advised to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.
  • Investors should consider their own investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and risk tolerance level.

Foreign Exchange:

  • Foreign exchange involves risks. Fluctuation in the exchange rate of a foreign currency may result in gains or significant losses in the event that the customer converts deposit from the foreign currency to another currency (including Hong Kong Dollar).

RMB Deposit Service:

  • Renminbi (“”RMB””) exchange rate, like any other currency, is affected by a wide range of factors and is subject to fluctuations. Such fluctuations may result in gains and losses in the event that the customer subsequently converts RMB to another currency (including Hong Kong dollars); and
  • RMB is currently not freely convertible and conversion of RMB through banks in Hong Kong is subject to restrictions specified by the Bank and regulatory requirements applicable from time to time. The actual conversion arrangement will depend on the restrictions prevailing at the relevant time.

Disclaimer and Important Notes of Insurance

  • This webpage is intended to be valid in Hong Kong only and shall not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy or provision of any insurance product outside Hong Kong. Prudential and Standard Chartered do not offer or sell any insurance product in any jurisdictions outside Hong Kong in which such offering or sale of the insurance product is illegal under the laws of such jurisdictions. This webpage does not constitute a contract of insurance or an offer, invitations or recommendation to any person to enter into any contract of insurance or any transaction described therein or any similar transaction.
  • The material and information contained on this webpage should be read in conjunction with the relevant product brochure and for the risk disclosure, please refer to the product brochure.

Notes

  • This webpage does not constitute any prediction of likely future price movements.
  • Investors should not make investment decisions based on this webpage alone.
  • This webpage has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission or any regulatory authority in Hong Kong.

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