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Latest FX Pulse Videos

Check it out and see our views on how FX trends move.

 

1 September 2025

French political risk to weigh on Europe

25 August 2025

Dovish Powell reinforces downside risks for USD

 

Latest FX News

FX Weekly – 13 Aug 2025

US inflation supports September rate cut

The DXY may hover around 98.2 in the near-term; a firm break below could test 97. The RBA cut rate by 25bps and signaled room for further easing. AUD/HKD fell initially after the meeting but rebounded on US inflation data. Focus now turns to Australia’s unemployment data due tomorrow; a stronger-than-expected reading could see the pair challenge its support at 5.05. (AUD/USD: 0.6441).

FX Weekly – 8 Aug 2025

BoE cut rates to 4%; tight vote provides near-term tailwind for GBP

The BoE cut interest rate by 25bps, as expected, but an unprecedented revote suggested a divided Monetary Policy Committee amid rising inflation and slowing labour market data. Money markets are not expecting another rate cut until November. GBP/HKD rose for 5 consecutive days, hovering above 10.50 and may likely test 10.60 (GBP/USD: 1.3505).

FX at a glance
  

Key FX Highlights

  • The USD faces upside risks in the near term, but this would be an opportunity to reduce exposure.
  • The USD index (DXY) appears oversold and may face short-squeeze risk. However, despite US June inflation data accelerating, we expect the Fed to deliver a 25bps rate cut by September.
  • Together with persistent US policy unpredictability, questions over central bank independence and the outlook for weaker US economic growth, we see the USD weakening over a 12-month horizon.
  • We expect EUR/USD to ease to 1.15 over the next 3 months before recovering to 1.17 in 12 months.

For more details, you may download our latest Global Market Outlook.

USD

3m forecast: 99.5

12m forecast: 96

The bullish case:

+ Short-squeeze risk

+ Eased trade tension

The bearish case:

– The Fed potential rate cut

– Persistent US policy unpredictability

– Questions over central bank independence

 

GBP

3m forecast: 1.31 (GBP/USD)

12m forecast: 1.37 (GBP/USD)

The bullish case:

+ The UK’s surprised inflation uptick

The bearish case:

– BoE rate cut expectations

– The UK’s weakening PMI and consumer confidence

 

JPY

3m forecast: 150 (USD/JPY)

12m forecast: 140 (USD/JPY)

The bullish case:

+ BoJ’s rate hike

The bearish case:

– Delay in BoJ restrictive monetary policy

– Early signs of tariff drag in exports

AUD

3m forecast: 0.67 (AUD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.66 (AUD/USD)

The bullish case:

+ Improving risk appetite

+ CNY resilience

The bearish case:

– China’s modest recovery

– Capped commodities

– A dovish RBA

 

EUR

3m forecast: 1.15 (EUR/USD)

12m forecast: 1.17 (EUR/USD)

The bullish case:
+Narrowing rate differentials

+Expect the ECB to end its rate cutting cycle in Q3

The bearish case:

– Lower ECB policy rates

– European political uncertainty

 

NZD

3m forecast: 0.58 (NZD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.63 (NZD/USD)

The bullish case:
+ Monthly inflation rate rose; limit room for rate cuts

The bearish case:

– China’s modest recovery

– Capped commodities

CAD

3m forecast: 1.37 (USD/CAD)

12m forecast: 1.37 (USD/CAD)

The bullish case:
+ Improved business confidence
The bearish case:

– Trade uncertainties may dampen sentiment

 

CHF

3m forecast: 0.81 (USD/CHF)

12m forecast: 0.82 (USD/CHF)

The bullish case:

+ Sale of FX reserves

+ Intervention risk

The bearish case:
– Easing global trade tensions
– Fading risk aversion
– SNB cut rates again

 

CNY
  
3m forecast: 7.20 (USD/CNY)

12m forecast: 7.40 (USD/CNY)

The bullish case:

+ China fiscal stimulus

The bearish case:

– Geopolitics

– Modest economic recovery

 

Photography, Adult, Female

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Disclaimers

Important Note of Investment Products

Premium deposit, Equity Linked Investments and structured notes are structured products involving derivatives. Investment Fund is an investment product and some Investment Funds would involve derivatives. The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in that investment product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation, investment experience and investment objectives.

Risk Disclosure Statement

  • Investment involves risks. The prices of investment products fluctuate, sometimes dramatically and the worst case may result in loss of your entire investment amount. Past performance is no guide to its future performance.
  • Investors should read the terms and conditions contained in the relevant offering documents and in particular the investment policies and the risk factors and latest financial results information carefully and are advised to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.
  • Investors should consider their own investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and risk tolerance level.

Foreign Exchange:

  • Foreign exchange involves risks. Fluctuation in the exchange rate of a foreign currency may result in gains or significant losses in the event that the customer converts deposit from the foreign currency to another currency (including Hong Kong Dollar).

RMB Deposit Service:

  • Renminbi (“”RMB””) exchange rate, like any other currency, is affected by a wide range of factors and is subject to fluctuations. Such fluctuations may result in gains and losses in the event that the customer subsequently converts RMB to another currency (including Hong Kong dollars); and
  • RMB is currently not freely convertible and conversion of RMB through banks in Hong Kong is subject to restrictions specified by the Bank and regulatory requirements applicable from time to time. The actual conversion arrangement will depend on the restrictions prevailing at the relevant time.

Disclaimer and Important Notes of Insurance

  • This webpage is intended to be valid in Hong Kong only and shall not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy or provision of any insurance product outside Hong Kong. Prudential and Standard Chartered do not offer or sell any insurance product in any jurisdictions outside Hong Kong in which such offering or sale of the insurance product is illegal under the laws of such jurisdictions. This webpage does not constitute a contract of insurance or an offer, invitations or recommendation to any person to enter into any contract of insurance or any transaction described therein or any similar transaction.
  • The material and information contained on this webpage should be read in conjunction with the relevant product brochure and for the risk disclosure, please refer to the product brochure.

Notes

  • This webpage does not constitute any prediction of likely future price movements.
  • Investors should not make investment decisions based on this webpage alone.
  • This webpage has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission or any regulatory authority in Hong Kong.

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