26 January 2026
Markets alert to joint US-Japan intervention on JPY
Check it out and see our views on how FX trends move.
Markets alert to joint US-Japan intervention on JPY
USD upside likely limited
Dives to a Nearly One-Year Low! Don’t Miss This!
100 JPY/HKD dropped to 4.92 level. Media reports indicate Prime Minister Takaichi may dissolve the lower house later this month. This uncertainty has pushed the JPY to nearly a one-year low. Any official announcement of a snap election could trigger further JPY weakness, despite potential government intervention to limit currency depreciation. 100 JPY/HKD may see support around 4.87-4.93 (USD/JPY 158-160). Snow season isn’t over and the Chinese New Year holiday is also approaching. Seize the opportunity to lock in your ideal exchange rate!
100 JPY/HKD is still lower the 5 mark
100 JPY/HKD is still lower the 5 mark. However, the pair has overshot yield differentials, which we believe will eventually trigger BOJ intervention. We expect the pair to rebound to about 5.3 in 2026 on increasingly divergent central bank policies between the Fed (potential rate cut) and the BoJ (potential rate hike).
Key FX Highlights
For more details, you may download our latest Global Market Outlook.
3m forecast: 100
12m forecast: 96
The bullish case:
+ Bearish positionings start to normalise
+ Safe-haven demand
The bearish case:
– The Fed’s further rate cut
– Weak US labour market
–Rising policy uncertainty
3m forecast: 1.31 (GBP/USD)
12m forecast: 1.35 (GBP/USD)
The bullish case:
+ USD weakness
The bearish case:
– A surge in BoE rate cut expectations
– Slower-than-expected UK inflation
3m forecast: 149 (USD/JPY)
12m forecast: 142 (USD/JPY)
The bullish case:
+ BoJ’s expected rate hike
+ Expected Fed rate cuts
The bearish case:
– Delay in BoJ restrictive monetary policy
– Market concerns over fiscal challenges
3m forecast: 0.66 (AUD/USD)
12m forecast: 0.63 (AUD/USD)
The bullish case:
+ RBA holds rates higher for longer relative to US
+ Easing trade tensions between China and the US
The bearish case:
– China’s modest recovery
3m forecast: 1.15 (EUR/USD)
12m forecast: 1.20 (EUR/USD)
The bullish case:
+ Unlikely to cut rate significantly further
+ USD weakness
The bearish case:
– Political uncertainty
3m forecast: 0.57 (NZD/USD)
12m forecast: 0.55 (NZD/USD)
The bullish case:
+ USD weakness
The bearish case:
– RBNZ rate cut pressure
– New Zealand’s rising unemployment
3m forecast: 1.42 (USD/CAD)
12m forecast: 1.42 (USD/CAD)
The bullish case:
+ USD weakness
The bearish case:
– BoC cuts rates
– Trade uncertainties
3m forecast: 0.81 (USD/CHF)
12m forecast: 0.84 (USD/CHF)
The bullish case:
+ Sale of FX reserves
+ Intervention risk
The bearish case:
– Easing safe-haven demand
3m forecast: 7.16 (USD/CNY)
12m forecast: 7.20 (USD/CNY)
The bullish case:
+ China fiscal stimulus
+ Easing trade tensions
The bearish case:
– Geopolitics
– Unfavorable rate differentials
– Modest economic recovery
Enjoy HKD100 welcome offer with an accumulated foreign exchange transaction of HKD10,000
Important Note of Investment Products
Premium deposit, Equity Linked Investments and structured notes are structured products involving derivatives. Investment Fund is an investment product and some Investment Funds would involve derivatives. The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in that investment product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation, investment experience and investment objectives.
Risk Disclosure Statement
Foreign Exchange:
RMB Deposit Service:
Disclaimer and Important Notes of Insurance
Notes
To borrow or not to borrow? Borrow only if you can repay!