1 September 2025
French political risk to weigh on Europe
Check it out and see our views on how FX trends move.
French political risk to weigh on Europe
Dovish Powell reinforces downside risks for USD
US inflation supports September rate cut
The DXY may hover around 98.2 in the near-term; a firm break below could test 97. The RBA cut rate by 25bps and signaled room for further easing. AUD/HKD fell initially after the meeting but rebounded on US inflation data. Focus now turns to Australia’s unemployment data due tomorrow; a stronger-than-expected reading could see the pair challenge its support at 5.05. (AUD/USD: 0.6441).
BoE cut rates to 4%; tight vote provides near-term tailwind for GBP
The BoE cut interest rate by 25bps, as expected, but an unprecedented revote suggested a divided Monetary Policy Committee amid rising inflation and slowing labour market data. Money markets are not expecting another rate cut until November. GBP/HKD rose for 5 consecutive days, hovering above 10.50 and may likely test 10.60 (GBP/USD: 1.3505).
For more details, you may download our latest Global Market Outlook.
USD
3m forecast: 99.5
12m forecast: 96
The bullish case:
+ Short-squeeze risk
+ Eased trade tension
The bearish case:
– The Fed potential rate cut
– Persistent US policy unpredictability
– Questions over central bank independence
GBP
3m forecast: 1.31 (GBP/USD)
12m forecast: 1.37 (GBP/USD)
The bullish case:
+ The UK’s surprised inflation uptick
The bearish case:
– BoE rate cut expectations
– The UK’s weakening PMI and consumer confidence
JPY
3m forecast: 150 (USD/JPY)
12m forecast: 140 (USD/JPY)
The bullish case:
+ BoJ’s rate hike
The bearish case:
– Delay in BoJ restrictive monetary policy
– Early signs of tariff drag in exports
AUD
3m forecast: 0.67 (AUD/USD)
12m forecast: 0.66 (AUD/USD)
The bullish case:
+ Improving risk appetite
+ CNY resilience
The bearish case:
– China’s modest recovery
– Capped commodities
– A dovish RBA
EUR
3m forecast: 1.15 (EUR/USD)
12m forecast: 1.17 (EUR/USD)
The bullish case:
+Narrowing rate differentials
+Expect the ECB to end its rate cutting cycle in Q3
The bearish case:
– Lower ECB policy rates
– European political uncertainty
NZD
3m forecast: 0.58 (NZD/USD)
12m forecast: 0.63 (NZD/USD)
The bullish case:
+ Monthly inflation rate rose; limit room for rate cuts
The bearish case:
– China’s modest recovery
– Capped commodities
CAD
3m forecast: 1.37 (USD/CAD)
12m forecast: 1.37 (USD/CAD)
The bullish case:
+ Improved business confidence
The bearish case:
– Trade uncertainties may dampen sentiment
CHF
3m forecast: 0.81 (USD/CHF)
12m forecast: 0.82 (USD/CHF)
The bullish case:
+ Sale of FX reserves
+ Intervention risk
The bearish case:
– Easing global trade tensions
– Fading risk aversion
– SNB cut rates again
CNY
3m forecast: 7.20 (USD/CNY)
12m forecast: 7.40 (USD/CNY)
The bullish case:
+ China fiscal stimulus
The bearish case:
– Geopolitics
– Modest economic recovery
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